WED brief 10.20.21
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HISPANIC VOTERS are being pushed and pulled into the Republican Party.
Most reporting about trends from the 2020 election claim GOP gains among Hispanics was down to a cult of personality pull. But while this narrative is, perhaps, emotionally comforting to those who proclaim it, it neglects the pushing away effect of the Democrats’ devolution into woke lunacy.
Anyone unsure of how this Marxist progressive nonsense plays in Hispanic (not “Latinx”) communities should spend ten minutes in a commercial kitchen or construction site.
The second part of the comfort blanket Democrats are weaving to deal with their collapsing demographics are destiny narrative is that urban and suburban gains by Democrats are sustainable apart from Trump-driven derangement.
The 5 point gain made by Democrats in the four largest metro areas between 2016 and 2020 is arguably more transient than the shift in border and rural Hispanic voting trending to the GOP.
Further, the gains enjoyed by Democrats in urban areas are likely to be hampered going forward by the state reigning in election interference practices deployed by Democrat operatives in 2020.
These dynamics coupled with increased activity by Republicans to conduct meaningful outreach in a less cringy fashion bode well for the GOP growing tent of sanity.
DEMOCRATS have sued over newly redistricted maps before they are even signed into law. The litigation is unlikely to prevail but could ultimately delay the 2022 primary election.
Any delays to next year’s election negatively affect the ability of Republican incumbents to perform well. In 2012, a protracted election cycle delayed by redistricting was lethal for the establishment.
THE AUSTIN POLICE ASSOCIATION is undertaking a smear campaign against Ellen Troxclair.
Beyond the slings and arrows of one Texas House race, this action illustrates two baleful trends.
First is the unreliability of police unions as political allies for conservatives. This is important to remember in a season where both groups (correctly) oppose the national “defund the police” movement. Temporarily overlapping interests are acceptable but don’t get carried away.
During her time on the Austin City Council, Troxclair was the Austin Police Association’s most reliable ally. While she had reservations about the fiscal impact of one preliminary labor agreement, she supported them on every other issue. Yet, the police union throws Troxclair under the bus for that one vote on a preliminary deal.
The police association’s action also speaks to a culture of arrogance, both in Austin and nationally, that enabled “defund the police” to find a receptive audience. While “defund the police,” as it emerged in 2020, is lunacy...the lunacy of that position doesn’t change the fact that abuses do happen. And police unions frequently help turn a blind eye to those abuses.
Public Safety does not mean law enforcement gets to do whatever it wants.
Speaking of a culture of arrogance, on what planet does the Austin Police Association think launching this sort of attack in the middle of early voting for the Austin police funding initiative is a good idea?
The second trend is the presence of Murphy-Nasica, Justin Berry’s campaign consultant. The consultancy’s dirty tactics have featured prominently over the past fifteen years of House politics. Expect more of the same from their clients as the primary season kicks into high gear.
Austin Young Republicans have amplified the smear. See the next item for more about their parent organization.
Long known as a repository for entry-level GOP sycophants, the YR organization doesn’t serve a political purpose. It’s about networking. There are few better places for aspiring crony capitalists to “build a Rolodex” (or whatever more technologically apt metaphor you prefer).
In that vein, the YR’s can always be relied upon to do the establishment’s dirty work (see the previous item for another example).
An organization run by Karl Rove in the 1970s endorsing yet another Bush is apropos.
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