FRI brief 10.9.20
Polling looks good for GOP
|Push Junction||Oct 9|
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VOTER FRAUD arrests continue to mount in Texas, a trend that will, in all probability, increase following the 2020 election.
Yesterday the Attorney General’s office charged mayoral candidate Zul Mirza with 109 felonies related to illegally requesting mail-in ballots for alleged nursing home residents.
“Voter fraud is a serious and widespread issue and cannot be tolerated.” - Denton County Sheriff Tracy Murphree
TODD SMITH, (a former State Rep.) irrelevant for a decade, has emerged to endorse Jeff Whitfield, a carpet-bagging Democrat trying to win HD 92. Democrats needing the endorsement of washed-up Republicans to win is not a sign that things are going well.
POLLING from the liberal publication Reform Austin suggests that things are not as rosy for Democrats as projected.
In the five races where they polled for Democrat incumbents, the group claims they all have comfortable leads. While Zwiener’s HD45 (South Austin) and Calanni in HD132 (Harris Co.) appear safe, Beckley in HD65, Rosenthal in HD135, and unpolled Talarico HD52 are tossups at best.
Cross tabs for the poll were not released. The likely voter model for this polling, if it mimics other popular models, this cycle is too Democratic, overweighting young voters.
One race included in the poll has more recent than 2018 observable electoral behavior, HD 28, the self-described litmus test for Democrats. In the special election contest waged in late 2019 and early 2020, Democrats did not come remotely close the winning.
According to the RA poll Trump is pulling 46% of the vote in 2020. Abbott won the district in 2018 with 55% of the vote, Cruz with 51%, and the special election netted Gary Gates, the GOP candidate, 58% of the vote.
Analysis of Texas electoral trends that only consider Romney, Trump, and Cruz doesn’t scratch the surface of through and is far from convincing.
FUNDRAISING might indicate a competitive race, or it might indicate wild hype and wishful thinking.
JOHN CORNYN provides another example of the hypocrisy of the GOP's establishment wing when it comes to circling the wagons.
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