MON brief 1.31.22
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Today’s Stories
GREG ABBOTT received both good news and bad news over the weekend.
The University of Houston and UT-Tyler both released polls showing the incumbent in the high 50’s for the GOP primary.
While those numbers are (extremely) tepid for a two-term incumbent, even if they’re inflated, they’re good enough to avoid a runoff.
In assessing Abbott’s intra-GOP standing, one must remember that he won 90% of the vote in the last primary. To have fallen 30 points among your party’s base over four years is massive. But, in the context of the current primary, not quite enough.
Abbott in 2022 is like Dubya in 2004: He’s on a long-term downward trajectory but can eke out one last term.
These video clips from Saturday’s Trump rally capture the embattled Governor’s situation:
He’s getting booed, but shouting “Donald Trump” seems to be overwhelming them. At least in the short term. With the primary a month away, that’s pretty short-term.
It's possible that Abbott has the leads these polls suggest, but there is potential for exaggeration, especially if the sampling is off. Still, conservatively, the field needs to knock him down another 5 to 10 points, and they have 30 days to act. That’s a quarter-point per day.
Not impossible, but not easy.
Now Abbott will go back into hiding and pray for no catastrophes that could lighten his opponent’s load in the next month. (AC)
STEPHANIE KLICK prioritized the feelings of woke activists to the permanent mutilation of a boy as Chairman of the health committee in 2021.
Jeff Younger, the current candidate for House District 63, told this story at a joint campaign appearance w/ David Lowe (running against Klick). While this six-minute video is difficult to watch, you need to do so:
Republican state, folks.
ROUND ROCK ISD is losing a school board member.
Dr. Jun Xiao, a supporter of the embattled Superintendent, who had already announced he would not be seeking reelection, is stepping down early.
This departure comes as Superintendents around the state continue to abandon their posts and parents ramp up their efforts to purge taxpayer-funded pornography from libraries and classrooms.
Keep up the pressure.
POLLING from two outfits hit over the weekend.
Discussed above in the context of Greg Abbott’s primary, there were several other noteworthy takeaways.
It’s hard not to take The University of Texas at Tyler’s polling with a tablespoon of salt after it had Biden beating Trump in 2020. But the group’s latest effort closely tracks the University of Houston’s polling, which got the Biden number right in 2020 and was off by a couple of points in Trump’s eventual take.
Here are some observations:
UT Tyler oversampled Democrats vs. Republicans (40/51)
UT Tyler has Paxton viewed more favorably than Cornyn among GOP voters
Paxton is still likely facing a runoff
Gohmert and Bush are in a dogfight for second place.
Independents hate Bobby Francis O’Rourke (12/35) very favorable to very unfavorable.
Rick Perry has more experience than Abbott (39/25) and was more likable (11/7)
Abbott does poorly with Independents on multiple questions. Only 38% of Independents support his job performance, and it’s a 40/43 split on favorability.
Independents polled are critical of Abbott’s ability to handle the crisis, 35/52 favorable to the poor.
Interestingly, 65% of those polled are confident that the March 2022 primary election will be conducted fairly.
REDISTRICTING in Texas was done to keep a ceiling on Republican gains, while Democrats in News York worked to raise theirs.
These aren’t the same approach; despite what some claim, they are the opposite.
Republicans in Texas gave weak-kneed incumbents more of the GOP vote than they needed, especially in Colin, Tarrant, Fort Bend, and counties near Travis. They created Democrat strongholds in the process from which encroachments on neighboring districts would be launched.
This is true of both Congressional seats (as highlighted by Li) but more so seen in the State House races.
In New York, after the non-partisan redistricting panel failed to adopt maps, lawmakers wiped out GOP seats to create competitive but advantageous Democratic districts.
As is the case in Texas, the politics of New York are shifting.
It’s possible Republicans could win some of these new NY seats, and those nearby that were cannibalized, in a wave election, like some of the newly minted districts in Illinois.
Three Democrat seats on Long Island, considering what happened in the 2021 local elections, seems ambitious.
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