MON brief 3.7.22

Mar 07, 2022

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Today’s Stories

ELECTION TAKES continue to spin out of last week’s primary. Here are some initial takeaways (more to come tomorrow).

Abbott is difficult to “beat,” but you can change his behavior by messing w/ him.

Abbott had a strong performance in the governor’s race a while a more vigorous negative spend may have siphoned more votes; it appeared to drive legislative action:

The Texas Heartbeat Act
Permitless carry
While still flawed, an elections bill moved the ball forward on the worst abuses.
No matter how kicking and screaming, it may have been, a last-minute declaration that minors' so-called sexual “transitioning” is child abuse (duh).

To protect his political brand, Abbott was forced into substantive concessions. The Huffines campaign was proof of concept. Expect similar efforts to become a regular feature of Texas politics.

Huffines’ success in changing Abbott’s behavior helped doom him in the primary.

If you are a regular reader of this newsletter, you know Abbott had zero desire to give you the four points listed above.

You know that those results required a massive pressure campaign and that Huffines’ gubernatorial run (combined with Abbott’s desire to run for President) was the primary vehicle for that agitation.

Unfortunately, the average voter is clueless about that last paragraph. By the time the election came around, Abbott had a much stronger record than would have otherwise been the case.

Huffines may eventually be viewed as a modern Travis: Lost battle but won the war.

LGBT crowd got annihilated.

It’s not just that Abbott was forced into a last-minute concession on the so-called sexual “transitioning” of minors; it’s that Biden took the bait.

If Abbott goes wobbly on the issue (his natural instinct), he’s now caving to Joe Biden. But, beyond that, it’s impossible to overstate how bad this election was for the LGBT crowd.

Primarily, for “Snippy Stephanie” (Klick) to fall into a runoff means discussion of the so-called sexual “transitioning” of minors isn’t going anywhere. Klick gained notoriety by killing the bill to ban this barbaric practice during the 2021 legislative session. Similarly, Jeff Younger’s continued political viability means the conversation will continue.

Indeed, ANTIFA has already come after Younger, and it’s unlikely this is the last time they’ll engage the matter in Texas? Anytime ANTIFA gets involved, it’s bad for the side they support in anything.

In addition, don’t overlook the results in HD-122 (West side of San Antonio). Although he never said so openly, retiring state rep Lyle Larson is politically close to the business lobby and was widely perceived to echo their sentiments on tranny issues.

Mark Dorazio and Elisha Chan, the two candidates remaining in the contest to replace Larson, have both drawn the ire of the LGBT lobby.

More Texas House runoffs than ever before.

The three races discussed in the previous item are hardly the only opportunities.

Conservatives have 13 runoffs to move the Texas house caucus to the right. Four races involve incumbents (Klick, Kacal, Rogers, and Stevenson), while nine are for open seats.

In a typical election cycle, having five Texas house primaries go to runoffs has been considered a win.

Historically, conservatives haven’t done great in open seat runoffs. With 13 seats in play, the law of averages suggests pickups are likely. If conservatives over-perform, it could alter the Texas house significantly.

Dade Phelan remains the overwhelming favorite to retain the speakership but could (a la the discussion about Abbott above) be forced into making concessions on issues (e.g., Abolishing University Tenure, Banning the so-called sexual “transitioning” of minors, and ending Democrat committee chairs) to retain power.

Strong Performance for Patrick.

On the other side of the Capitol, Dan Patrick had a perfect night. The Lite Guv ran ten points ahead of Abbott in his race, but that wasn’t his only good news.

Dan Patrick’s handpicked candidates won four out of five primaries (King, Parker, Middleton, and Sparks). While Jane Nelson for Tan Parker is an even trade, the other three winners are significantly more conservative than the incumbent they’re replacing.

Patrick has been consolidating power in the Lt. Governor’s office for a while. With the preliminary results, Patrick now has more political capital than the other big three members (Abbott and Phelan).

How Dan Patrick chooses to deploy his newfound political capital is up to no one except Dan Patrick.

One place Patrick fell short is good.

Patrick did not, however, run the table. In SD-24, Patrick’s handpicked candidate (Pete Flores) heads to a runoff against a more independent-minded challenger (Raul Reyes).

While both candidates are ideologically sound, a victory for Reyes would prevent the Texas Senate from falling into a full-on cult of personality for Dan Patrick.

Paxton’s mistakes are good for conservatives.

Ken Paxton is a guy who has made some significant mistakes in his personal life. In addition, Paxton has been on the receiving end of multiple bogus, bad faith accusations of corruption. The net result is that he falls into a runoff in a race; a candidate with less baggage wins easily.

But, so what? With Paxton falling into a runoff, the only thing that changes is that Paxton is likely to continue filing extraordinary lawsuits. That’s good.

Meanwhile, George P. Bush being Paxton’s runoff opponent is helpful. The Bush crime family will never go away, but they can be beaten back for a generation. Salt the earth.

To understand why to see the next item.

LBJ’s crony network survives.

On the Democrat side, Joe Jaworski made the runoff for Attorney General, and Jay Kleberg did likewise for Land Commissioner. Both families have longstanding ties to Lyndon Johnson.

Jaworski’s father, Leon, was a special counsel to the Warren Commission. The Kleburgs owned the King Ranch in South Texas and were close political allies with George Parr (who played a leading role in stealing the 1948 U.S. Senate election for Johnson).

Speaking of shady election results in South Texas, see next item.

Did Cuellar cheat?!?

Likewise, on the Democrat side, the primary between incumbent Henry Cuellar and socialist challenger Jessica Cisneros heads to a runoff.

Without intending to do so, the Texas Observer’s writeup asks good questions:

More information is needed before you can level an accusation of fraud, but this is a familiar playbook in a standard location.

Morrow Loses.

The GOP gadfly comes up short in his latest attempt to torment the party’s establishment. A source close to the Morrow campaign had spent the final six weeks assuring PushJunction victory was at hand. That prediction proved about as accurate as Allen West’s polls. (AC)

HARRIS COUNTY has finally turned in election results. Still, just criticism of the county’s handling of the 2022 primary election continued as the week ended.

The flaws included what Harris County calls an ‘oversight’ leading to around 10,000 mail-in ballots not being counted.

Meanwhile, the Houston Chronicle is trying to normalize the practice of counting and reporting votes in the days after an election. This behavior undermines trust in elections.

Harris County’s inability to conduct a trustworthy election was paired last week with a report out of Wisconsin that concluded Mark Zuckerberg bribed election officials to produce an electoral outcome he desired.

These are abuses of the process meant to ensure trust, and Democrats, not Republicans, are running over them.