MON brief 10.19.20
Abbot's early vote wobble
|Push Junction||Oct 19|
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TWITTER and FACEBOOK censoring articles critical of their preferred candidate (Biden) suggests the election is closer than portrayed in the media for the past year.
GREG ABBOTT is dropping cash into Texas House races at the last minute. Observations of the governor’s lack of investment before the first week of early voting may have suggested the governor was not concerned with his party’s prospects.
Clearly, the first week of early voting has the (to date) zombie-like Abbott and GOP spooked.
An October 16 analysis of early voting by Ryan Research shows that the share of the early vote in 2020 compared to 2016 is up 1.9 points to 32% Republicans and up 10.6 points for Democrats to 31.9%.
Too close for comfort if you’re Abbott, and that’s not the type of directional energy that ends in a good night for the GOP on November 3rd.
Still, there are indicators that a robust GOTV effort may see Republicans limp across the finish line.
Individuals with no voting history aren’t showing up in the early vote. In 2016 new voters at this point accounted for 16.6% of the vote compared to just 9.1% in 2020, and turnout among voters in the 18 to 29 demographic is down by 5% from 2016 to 2020.
Both of these will need to jump, or it’s likely what we see in the first week of early voting is highly motivated high propensity voters front weighting the election.
Also, there’s that no straight-ticket voting issue to gauge.
In the 2020 primary election, Democrats in Williamson and Denton county were at least twice as likely to undervote down-ballot races than their Republican counterparts. We’ll see if/how this might map to the general in 15 days.
AN SREC MEMBER has endorsed Democrat Ryan Guillen for re-election to the Texas House. Before supporting Guillen, Dr. Alma Arredodo Lynch backed James Dickey for Chairman of the GOP and Tony Gonzales for CD 23 according to a review of her social media activity.
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