MON brief 10.19.20

Abbot's early vote wobble

Welcome to the morning brief. If this email was forwarded to you, be sure to sign up (free or paid), so you don't miss a beat.

Today’s stories

TWITTER and FACEBOOK censoring articles critical of their preferred candidate (Biden) suggests the election is closer than portrayed in the media for the past year.

Related: Psst, it’s a close race according to Biden

GREG ABBOTT is dropping cash into Texas House races at the last minute. Observations of the governor’s lack of investment before the first week of early voting may have suggested the governor was not concerned with his party’s prospects.

Clearly, the first week of early voting has the (to date) zombie-like Abbott and GOP spooked.

An October 16 analysis of early voting by Ryan Research shows that the share of the early vote in 2020 compared to 2016 is up 1.9 points to 32% Republicans and up 10.6 points for Democrats to 31.9%.

Too close for comfort if you’re Abbott, and that’s not the type of directional energy that ends in a good night for the GOP on November 3rd.

Still, there are indicators that a robust GOTV effort may see Republicans limp across the finish line.

Individuals with no voting history aren’t showing up in the early vote. In 2016 new voters at this point accounted for 16.6% of the vote compared to just 9.1% in 2020, and turnout among voters in the 18 to 29 demographic is down by 5% from 2016 to 2020.

Both of these will need to jump, or it’s likely what we see in the first week of early voting is highly motivated high propensity voters front weighting the election.

Also, there’s that no straight-ticket voting issue to gauge.

In the 2020 primary election, Democrats in Williamson and Denton county were at least twice as likely to undervote down-ballot races than their Republican counterparts. We’ll see if/how this might map to the general in 15 days.

Related: What early voting can (and can't) tell us about the election

AN SREC MEMBER has endorsed Democrat Ryan Guillen for re-election to the Texas House. Before supporting Guillen, Dr. Alma Arredodo Lynch backed James Dickey for Chairman of the GOP and Tony Gonzales for CD 23 according to a review of her social media activity.

Hit the links

Rinaldi: The Forgotten House Speaker Race 

Flashback: Trade Secrets From the Predictors Who Called a Trump Victory

Experts: Biden’s cashless bail policy is a prescription for more anarchy

Against David French-ism

Police accuse GOP activist of malicious posts

* $ denotes subscription needed

Tracking

Tarrant Co. early vote through Saturday [2]

Political ideology map

Thanks for reading

Please feel free to contact me (reply to this email or email me at pushjunction@gmail.com) with questions, comments, suggestions, or tips.

One last thing, to be sure you always receive these emails, 1) move this message to your inbox and 2) add pushjunction@substack.com to your contacts (hover over the from the line).