Monday morning brief 11.4.19

Polling

Polling from the University of Texas began trickling out last week. So far we’ve seen information on Speaker Dennis Bonnen, the U.S. Senate race, and now Trump’s prospects in Texas.

The upshot, Democrats don’t have a candidate that can beat Trump head to head. The aforementioned UT polling runs contra to polling put out in September by the University of Houston that suggested Trump would lose to any Democrat in the field.

The UT polling has Democrat candidates under polling with Democrat voters, suggesting that a final decision has not been made or a candidate who has not entered the race is preferred. In any case, it has been noted in reporting that as registered voters begin to switch to likely voters, polls trend more Republican. Reporting noting this caveat is a good indicator that academics more concerned with credibility anticipate worse, not better figures for Democrats moving forward.

The UT poll was in the field Oct. 18-27, well into the impeachment push. The University of Houston polling put out in September.

Beto O’rouke has withdrawn from the presidential primary, now what. The candidate has stated he will not run against John Cornyn, likely a good decision. In his race against Ted Cruz in 2018, O’rouke was an unknown quantity. He was charismatic, had a highly effective infrastructure, was centrist and therefore ill-defined. While he may still be charismatic, an O’rouke infrastructure would be limited in 2020 given the need to distribute funding over a wider number of candidates and he’s now taken some very public and unpopular positions in his quest to be leader of the free world.

Uber is moving to Dallas, snagging $36 million in incentives, promising to bring 3,000 “high paying jobs” and developing a 500,000 square foot highrise.

Voting machines and former Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart made an appearance on the HBO show Last Week Tonight. In short, DRE’s take a beating for being the unauditable black boxes that they are and auditable systems are praised. Embed below, choice words included.