WED brief 7.1.20

Dickey's convention hustle

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Today's stories

JAMES DICKEY will be accused of trying to move the Texas GOP convention into a black box in three, two, one.

In the past 48 hours, a series of potentially coordinated events has lead the current Chairman of the GOP to go from "we're not mandating mask use," to consideration of moving the biannual meeting 100% online.

Dickey is locked in a hotly contested race to keep his job, and there's a sense that the rank and file party members are growing upset with government lockdowns from Governor Abbott, two issues that could benefit from a black box convention.

According to Cassi Pollock, Dickey and party officials have been working on ensuring that "encrypted secret ballot voting" and "credentialed verification" could happen, should the convention go digital.

Virtual voting on items like Dickey’s race and party platform planks is likely to draw sharp criticism from the party faithful. Conventions are regularly marred by machinations to control the size and shape of the platform and party leadership by the power-elite.

Adding to the palace intrigue, in the past few years, statewide leaders who have drawn the ire of the base have been booed off the stage, a known possibility that could add to motivation for canceling an in-person event.

Related: Chairmen candidate questionnaire

SOCIAL DESIRABILITY BIAS in polling is an issue in 2020, more so than it was in 2016.

RealClearPolitics' Matt Bevin appearing on Spicer & Co spoke about the issues pollsters are encountering with the “shy Trump Voter.”

So, while it's likely given the mix of current events in the U.S. (COVID + ANTIFA/BLM) that Trump is behind in the polls, the margins of most polls are overblown and not reflective of actual voter sentiment.

Hispanic voters moving to Trump and the GOP would make sense since they were disproportionally harmed by the COVID19 shutdown, and the GOP has more actively pushed for a reopening.

Of course, the GOP hasn't taken advantage of this opportunity, but that is a hallmark of the party's operation.

COVID19 infections in Texas continue to climb, but deaths haven’t spiked, and hospitalizations aren’t exceeding capacity [Tarrant | Harris | Dallas]. Bend but don't break appears to be working.

TEXAS EDUCATION AGENCY released a report yesterday suggesting that at least 10% of government educated children did not complete assignments and ghosted teachers during the spring semester of distance learning.

Hit the links

Was COVID with us long before anyone realized?

Workers get laid off for a second time ($)

Tubing outfitters selling parking, private river entry

Coin shortage hits Central Texas

Abbott’s elective surgeries ban threatens hospital solvency

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Coming up

7/15: FEC reports due

7/31: PFS filings due

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