WED brief 7.13.22
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POLLING, for as much as it’s being used to push narratives, is starting to say something consistent: Bobby Francis O’Rourke is running 3 to 4 points ahead of Joe Biden.
Unfortunately, the former congressman's range is between the high 30s and the mid-40s.
Related: O’Rourke (still) lags in polls.
UT (Hook ‘Em) has Biden at 35 and O’Rourke at 39. UH has Biden at 41 and O’Rourke at 44. Either is consistent with the general election scenario outlined last week (UT = Floor, UH = Ceiling).
That’s somewhere between “bad” and “catastrophic” for Democrats.
Biden’s rating in the UT poll matches Barack Obama at his lowest. This is probably instructive.
In 2010, the Democrat candidate for governor ran seven points ahead of Obama’s rating in the final UT poll. In 2014, the Democrat gov candidate ran three points ahead of Obama. Both were Democrat wipeouts.
The biggest question, this time, is the extent of Democrat erosion among Hispanics. See the next item for why it could be significant.
Speaking of the University of Texas poll: They seem no longer affiliated with the Texas Tribune. Based on their website, it appears the relationship ended in 2021.
Probably a backstory there.
If anyone knows, reply to this email.
JILL BIDEN, at a “Latix IncluXion” event in San Antonio:
It’s not just what the first lady said (although that’s bad enough). It’s what her comments reveal about Democrats. If you don’t understand why the white lady, speaking at the “LatinX” conference, drawing upon (actual, genuine) offensive racial stereotypes, might be a bad look, you’re beyond help.
For the rest of us, it’s obvious. That said, another aspect of the First Lady’s comment warrants discussion.
There was a time, not very long ago when a politically competitive South Texas was inconceivable. Now, it’s conventional wisdom.
South Texas and the Bronx have large Hispanic (not Latinx) populations. While it’s more pronounced in the former than the latter, both show signs of a misalignment of values between Hispanics and Democrats.
Related: Meet Ruban Diaz Sr.
The final chapter remains unwritten, but if Democrats lose Hispanics, comments like Jill Biden’s will explain why.
CLEAR CREEK ISD parents outside Houston have successfully ousted a superintendent linked to nationally covered scandals in Loudon County, VA.
The Superintendent in question is alleged to have been a Critical Race Theory adherent who had worked to embed the ideology in the district.
Angry suburban parents remain a potent force.
Combined with the erosion among Hispanics discussed above, this is a worst-case scenario for Democrats.
The HEAT WAVE concludes its second month with no end in sight.
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