WED brief 7.6.22
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Today’s Stories
The GENERAL ELECTION environment, both in Texas and nationally, is a mostly baked cake. Sorry Democrats.
The Tribune’s Patrick Svitek explores the impact of the Uvalde shooting and SCOTUS Dobbs decision on the race for Governor. Svitek hypothesizes that events might have injected new issues into the race. While plausible, that interpretation isn’t ultimately compelling.
Related: Abortion likely to accelerate Democrat political death spiral
Some argue that inflation and the border are more significant concerns for Texas voters than guns and babies. That’s true, so far as it goes, but it misses a much bigger point.
It’s not about issues. Or, at least, it’s outside the margin that can be swung on “issues.”
Related: The Myth of the Rational Voter
Joe Biden is a doddering, senile fool, while Bobby Francis O’Rourke is an entitled narcissist. It doesn’t take a genius to see why, together, the political ceiling come November will be low for Democrats. That each advances an agenda outside the mainstream of Texas exacerbates this problem.
The most recent poll from Svitek’s employer has both Biden and O’Rourke at 37%. While that poll is from April, subsequent events are unlikely to move the needle. Or, at least, it won’t move the needle enough to make a difference.
Related: Democracy for Realists
The best thing going for Biden and O’Rourke is Greg Abbott. It’s not a secret that the incumbent has the personality of used dish soap; it’s just not likely that this charisma deficit will cost him his reelection.
Another question: Does Abbott underperform the rest of the GOP ticket?
Consider 2010: While all Republicans won comfortably, Rick Perry (that year’s incumbent governor seeking a third term w/ a Democrat in the WH) ran seven points behind the rest of the party. Without relitigating the Perry era, the former governor, by 2010, had accumulated sufficient political baggage to inspire 7% of the electorate to split their ticket.
Furthermore, ticket splitters were an underappreciated aspect of O’Rourke’s 2018 overperformance.
Buuut…that was 2018 O’Rourke. And, to put it mildly, 2022 O’Rourke has higher negatives than the 2018 version (or Bill White in 2010).
Abbott negatives are high. Biden/O’Rourke negatives are higher.
Ain’t democracy grand?!?
ABORTION is once again entirely illegal in Texas. The state’s 1925 prohibition on the practice can, once again, be enforced.
Under discussed factoid: 1925 was Ma Ferguson’s first term. In other words, Texas’ original prohibition on abortion dates back to the first legislative session of the first female governor.
You don’t have to buy into the left’s identity politics narrative to find that fascinating.
PASTORS FOR TEXAS CHILDREN is an educrat front group.
Read the whole thread.
Hit the Links
The Education of Glenn Youngkin
UT Austin Prof calls Black Republicans "Race Traitors."
Seizing the Opening for Democrats (Note: They don’t have one, see the first item)
Inside Ukraine’s Lobbying Blitz in Washington
Working Class Hispanics continue to defy the narrative.
Thanks for reading
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